Trini Observer exposed fraud early on

BY: DR. VISHNU BISRAM (POLLSTER)

Dr. Noel Kalicharan, former Senior lecturer at UWI, and currently commissioner of T&T Elections Commission, right after the election presented his analysis of the results based on Statements of Poll (SOPs) posted by GECOM and the opposition (Express March 24). Kalicharan, a Caricom observer in Guyana, exposed fraud early on.
Kalicharan seemed to have recognized the electoral machinery and inner workings of Guyana Elections Commission and expected trouble. Guided by institutional knowledge and experience, he was able to accurately pronounce on the integrity and credibility of the electoral process. It is amazing that he virtually predicted the results to almost its arithmetical accuracy from the recount.

He calculated that the PPP/C won the election by 15,801 votes over the incumbent APNU+AFC coalition. The recount in Guyana has the PPP/C ahead of APNU by 15,416 votes, a difference of 385, virtually nil statistical significance for those of us who study statistics or conduct polling exercises. Given that there were about 2300 polling stations, that’s an average difference of one vote for every six polling stations. That’s a remarkable level of accuracy given that, in any recount, some votes that were counted previously are now rejected and some that were rejected previously are now accepted.

While Kalicharan’s accuracy is noted, he really showed that the result of the Guyana elections was available all this time for anyone interested in the truth. The result was in plain sight as forces made strenuous attempts to distract from the truth trying to hoodwink the world with a conflicting and false narrative of which party won.
One wonders what APNU/AFC and GECOM had to gain by “hiding” their SOPs when asked by the media and observers. All parties and observers had copies of SOPs that were posted outside of polling stations. All SOPs would have had to match. Kalicharan’s calculations and GECOM’s recount were so close that they lend credence to the opposition claim that the posted SOPs were genuine from the start.

Long before Mingo’s March 14 fraudulent declaration, all parties would have known who won the elections. With all the SOPs in their possession, it needed only a few hours work to determine the accurate results. But instead of concluding the count, forces spent time devising a plan to thwart the will of the people. Every action, especially Mingo “falling sick” on March 4, was a carefully orchestrated plan of fraud.

Widely reported were the several attempts to defraud the electorate by persons within and outside GECOM machinery. Attempts were made to perpetrate massive fraud at various stages post election day. These led to numerous court challenges. Interventions by Caricom and tremendous international pressure culminated in a national recount exercise. Even during the recount, various machinations were employed to prevent the will of the people. Eventually, the recount concluded and the Chair ordered the Chief Election Officer to make a declaration of the valid recount votes. Even the declaration is being challenged in a frivolous suit.

The inevitable is in sight as official declaration will show PPP won leading to swearing in of Dr. Irfaan Ali as President.
Kalicharan is saluted for his eloquence, integrity, and statistical accuracy and the role he played as an observer in Guyana. His experience in elections no doubt was brought to bear on the scrutiny of voting and vote count and exposing fraud in Guyana