Voters say Guyana lacks fair oil contract

Dear Editor,

In a survey conducted in December by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA), the nation almost unanimously believes that Guyana does not have a fair contract with the giant oil companies, with a significant number of voters saying ‘oil’ ranked number three among issues that will influence how they vote on March 2. However, the nation lacks confidence in the fairness of the upcoming elections, but everyone wants a free, fair, and non-violent atmosphere for election.

Towards this end, they unanimously endorse the recent statement of the US Embassy (government) calling for a peaceful, free, and fair elections.

The poll was conducted by Dr. Vishnu Bisram who has been involved in field surveys and opinion polling in Guyana and other parts of the Caribbean since the 1980s. The latest poll interviewed 650 likely voters at random to represent the demographics of the population (39 Indians, 30% Africans, 20% Mixed, 10% Amerindians, and 1% other ethnic categories). The findings have a margin of error of 4% at a confidence level of 95%.

Based on the findings of the survey, everyone expressed concerns about crime and public security. Large majorities also are worried about the state of the economy (growing unemployment), rising corruption, governance, free and fair elections, state of health care, nascent oil industry, race relations, among other issues.

Asked about oil contracts with various energy giants, almost everyone said Guyana has not gotten fair contracts with oil companies; only 3% find contracts to be fair with 88% saying it should be renegotiated for higher royalty and profit sharing percentages. Asked if the emerging oil industry will guide how they vote, almost everyone answered in the affirmative.

Voters also identified a number of other critical issues that will influence how they vote. But when asked to rank various issues that will determine how they vote, budding oil industry ranks number three (17%) behind party loyalty (23%), crime (20%) and followed by race relations (11%), economy (10%), corruption (6%), governance (4%), presidential candidate (3%), and manifesto 1%.

Some respondents mentioned “Jagdeo” and “Granger”, leaders respectively of PPP and coalition as also influencing how they vote with the former having greater influence among voters than the latter. Among those who said oil will influence how they vote, they are interested in knowing how the various parties plan to spend the oil revenues; they want a portion of it in entitlements.

Separately, when asked if they will read a party’s manifesto or ever read one before voting, only 5% answered in the affirmative. Clearly, election manifestoes do not have significant influence on voters’ choice. Blind faith in party (party identification) has greater influence than issues on how people faith.

Asked if they think the election will be free and fair, 58% said no with 37% saying yes and the others not offering an opinion. Only 39% approve (with 52% disapproving) of the job GECOM Chair Ret’d Justice Claudette Singh is doing.

Asked if they approve of the statement of US Embassy (State Department) calling for a free, fair, and peaceful election, everyone answered in the affirmative.
Asked who was/is Granger’s most effective ally in running the government, Joe Harmon leads with 54%, followed by Amna Ally (17%), Volda Lawrence (11%), Basil Williams (5%), Dawn Hastings (4%), and others 9%.

Asked who has been the most effective Minister in government, Minister of Infrastructure David Patterson leads followed by Amna Ally and Dawn Hastings. Other Ministers who got good ratings for their performance include Volda Lawrence, Dr. George Norton, Valerie Garrido Lowe, Karen Cummings, Sydney Allicock, and Kathy Hughes.

Asked who was/is Jagdeo’s most effective party figure in battle against the government, 91% said Anil Nandlall.
Queried aside from Jagdeo, who has stood out most in the PPP in championing early elections after the no confidence motion, 95% said Nandlall.

The poll also queried voters on a number of other issues and determined favorability ratings of politicians and voter support for the parties. The findings will be released in a subsequent report.

Yours Respectfully,
Vishnu Bisram