People distrust government to manage oil

Dear Editor,
The public does not trust government (politicians in general) to manage the new developing oil and gas industry in light of what they say is an ‘unfair contract’ negotiated by political figures, and the nation also do not think they would benefit much from energy revenues. Instead, the population feel politicians and or their ‘partners’ have been and would be the major beneficiaries of contracts and revenues relating to the nascent fossil fuel industry. The poll also found that Bharrat Jagdeo and President David Granger have the highest favourable ratings in the country. These are some of the findings of the opinion poll conducted in early December by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA).

The poll was carried out by Dr. Vishnu Bisram. The poll interviewed 650 likely voters at random to represent the demographics of the population (39% Indians, 30% Africans, 20% Mixed, 10% Amerindians, and 1% other ethnic categories). The results have a margin of error of 4% at a confidence level of 95%.

Based on the findings of the survey, 84% said the country is moving in the wrong direction with only 11% saying it is moving in the right direction. Large majorities worry about government’s handling of public security, economy, oil industry, corruption, ethnic relations, and health care, among other national matters. Ministers who stood out among government and some opposition supporters for effective performance include David Patterson, Amna Ally, Dawn Hastings, Volda Lawrence, George Norton, Jaipaul Sharma, Valerie Garrido Lowe, Karen Cummings, Sydney Allicock, Ronald Bulkan, and Cathy Hughes. Respondents praise Jaipaul Sharma for his honesty describing him as perhaps the most honest Minister in the government. Voters rate Anil Nandlall as the most effective opposition MP aside from Jagdeo.

Asked if they trust government (politicians) to manage the oil industry, 87% said ‘no, with only 5% saying yes and 8% not giving an opinion. Asked who would benefit most from the oil industry, only 12% said the population at large would be the primary beneficiaries with 78% saying politicians, their friends, and those with connection with government and the oil companies would benefit the most. The remaining 10% offered no opinion.

Asked who they would trust more as President of the country, voters are polarised by party and ethnic lines with those backing the APNU-led Coalition preferring Granger and those supporting the PPP expressing a preference for Irfaan Ali. While almost everyone said they would trust a well known respectable figure like Ralph Ramkarran as President of the country, he, like the leaders of the other minor parties trail in popular support.

The challenge facing the Presidential candidates of the minor parties is, apart from Ramkarran and Vishnu Bandhu, they are not well known nationally. Among the small numbers of voters who are familiar with Badal, Lennox Shuman, Rhonda Ann Lam, Asha Kissoon, Craig Sylvester, and others, they are trusted. Voters are also divided along party lines on the questions of who they feel would make for a most effective President and who they would prefer to manage the economy.

Among those who know Robert Badal of Change Guyana, they almost unanimously prefer him to manage the economy citing his business success. It is generally believed by voters that a business CEO like Badal will do a better job managing the economy than the other Presidential candidates.
Asked if they think the Guyana High Court and Appeals Court rendered fair judgments in political cases, 40% said yes with 53% saying no and 7% not offering an opinion.

In terms of ratings of political figures, Jagdeo leads with 65% favourability and 30% unfavourable views of him. President Granger’s ratings are 48%- 46% nationally, but among traditional coalition supporters his favourability rating is 92%. Granger is by far the most popular figure in the ruling coalition exceeded only by First Lady Sandra Granger whose likability among supporters is 98%; she also is liked among significant supporters of the opposition.

The Presidential candidates of the minor parties, apart from Ramkarran, are not well known with most respondents saying they do not know enough about them to offer a favourable or unfavourable rating. Ramkarran came in for almost unanimous favourability among those who know him. And Badal also has high favourability among those who know him.

President Granger came in for kudos over his handling of the fatal accident involving his security detail some two months ago and for addressing the recent spate of traffic fatalities.

Asked which party they think would win the elections, respondents are divided along ethnic and party lines with a significant number of voters saying neither major party will win a majority describing such an outcome as best for the nation to force inter-party cooperation.

Vishnu Bisram