Issues for 2021

Dear Editor,

2020, the year of perfect vision, is coming to an end and the two main issues that will dominate the world is the global economy and COVID-19. With 93 percent of the world’s economies in recession the relationship of the world largest economies (China and United States) will be determinant. China is still an export-led economy, and the American consumer is its largest customer. But China’s export share of its gross domestic product has fallen from 37 percent in 2007 to slightly less than 20 percent today. China is better able to withstand the pressure of tariffs and other actions that are aimed at its exporters.

The U.S. depends heavily on China for providing the low-cost goods that enable income-constrained American consumers to make ends meet. The U.S. also depends on China to support its own exports; next to Mexico and Canada, China is America’s third largest and by far its most rapidly growing major export market.

The U.S. depends on China to provide funding for its budget deficits. It is the second largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities but in 2017 was the largest – some $1.08 trillion in direct ownership and at least another $250 billion of quasi-government paper. From 2019, over 80 percent of US treasuries are purchased by the Federal Reserve and there is a direct relationship between China’s decision to stop purchasing US treasuries and US monetizing its debt because there is no other country that can support the US’ insatiable appetite to borrow.

America depends on China because of a fundamental weakness in the structure of the U.S. economy — a profound and worrisome lack of domestic saving. In the first quarter of 2020, net national saving, which includes depreciation-adjusted saving of households, businesses and the government sector, was 1.4 percent of national income.

Lacking in savings at home, and wanting to consume and grow, the U.S. must import surplus foreign saving from abroad – and run massive balance-of-payments and trade deficits to import this capital. In 2017, the United States had merchandise trade deficits with 102 nations! In 2019, its largest trade deficit was with China (US$346 billion). The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services was $616.8 billion in 2019. Imports were $3.1 trillion and exports were only $2.5 trillion. This rivalry between the US and China will define the next decade. We must become knowledgeable about the potential Thucydides Trap, a term coined by American political scientist, Graham T. Allison, to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as the international hegemon. It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.

Secondly, on December 11, 2020 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued the first emergency use authorization (EUA) for a vaccine for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in individuals 16 years of age and older. The emergency use authorization allows the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine to be distributed in the U.S. This is not an approval but an emergency authorization. The FDA has determined that Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine has met the statutory criteria for issuance of an EUA. The totality of the available data provides clear evidence that Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine may be effective in preventing COVID-19. In 1861, Louis Pasteur announced that it was proven that germs cause disease. Terrain Theory could be traced back to Antoine Bechamp. Bechamp was a rival of Pasteur. Modern medicine followed the germ theory and has had great success treating disease by considering micro-organisms as enemies of life.

Bechamp said that disease would not develop in a truly healthy environment and that it could only evolve in an unhealthy organism. The change of a person’s microbiome is a way of changing his physical terrain. We are not talking about a total change but just change.
It would be wise to use both theories because they are not scientific laws but highly probable explanations. Many people have bad health terrain because they do not eat a balance diet and exercise, so vaccines and antibiotics are good choices for them. For those who are willing to be discipline; eat right, exercise and manage stress, they will be less susceptible to diseases even COVID-19. So, Bechamp lived to be 91.5 years and Pasteur lived to be 72. I am not against people taking the COVID-19 vaccines but I do not think human beings are identical and it is definitely not suitable for all. Make sure it is available for those who are at risk for COVID-19 instead of a wholesale distribution, which will likely fail.

Yours truly,
Brian Ellis Plummer