Carl Greenidge’s letter is the clearest sign that this illegal regime wants Venezuelan, Russian and Chinese help to remain illegally in power (see “Gov’t takes dim view of the actions of Mr Guaido and the National Assembly of Venezuela towards Guyana”, SN, Mar 19, 2020). Greenidge should read articles 113 and 186 of the constitution to know the Permanent Secretary is a handpicked political knave, not an impartial civil servant. And yes, this regime is illegal and its actions are illegal, particularly when pronouncing on matters of national security, sovereignty and interest.
Greenidge’s position is lurid and more critically, destructive to our sovereignty and security for several reasons. Greenidge is up in arms about Guaido’s national assembly rejecting the UNSG’s decision to refer the dispute to the ICJ and Guaido’s exhortation for the armed forces to defend Venezuela’s interests. In classic con artistry, Greenidge fails to mention that this very position mirrors Maduro’s positions. Even worse, Maduro used his gunboat to disrupt drilling in Guyana’s waters and escalated military tensions on the border under APNU’s rule. Yet Greenidge finds Gauido far more hostile than Maduro! How was this man foreign affairs minister again?
Here’s the truth about this peurile adventure into nonsense from Greenidge and APNU: it is all about trying desperately to get support from Venezuela, Russia and China. The writing is on the wall from everywhere else. America’s military might is a growing threat. It recently summoned APNU’s US ambassador to warn about consequences of an illegal swearing in of David Granger. The US just today declared Maduro guilty of narcotics trafficking. Yet, this regime continues to excoriate Guaido and favour Maduro.
Greenidge tries to shift this to the PPP. I detest the PPP but the PPP hasn’t unequivocally denied Guiado while implicitly recognizing Maduro. Nor is the PPP trapped having blatantly stolen an election and seeking a lifeline to desperately hold onto power.
Carl Greenidge and APNU, you’re not smart enough to play this game and we see exactly where this is going. You electoral bandits are trying everything to get Putin, Maduro and Xi to bite and come to your rescue. However, unlike APNU power players, Putin and Xi are Mensa minds when it comes to geostrategic thinking. Your attempted electoral heist is so comical that it is tragic. Even Putin and Xi cannot salvage that kind of rank incompetence.
There are clear reasons why Russia and China support Maduro but will not support APNU. Maduro has one of the strongest armies in the region. The GDF will be obliterated in an hour by any superpower. Most importantly, Maduro directly controls one of the most powerful and established oil industries in the world. Guyana has a fledgling oil industry and has zero control over its oil. Zero. Exxon literally controls the taps.
There is no way Russia and China can get control of Guyana’s oil over the US. Maduro had longstanding close connections with Russia and China even before his descent into raw authoritarianism. APNU was actively kowtow-ing to the West before it pulled this electoral nastiness. Maduro initially won power legitimately before despotism set in. APNU didn’t. Supporting any regime with that dismal support is too much for even superpowers, especially with heightened American presence worried about growing Russian and Chinese influence in the region and ticked off about the Venezuelan situation.
Why would Russia and China risk their delicate balance already established in Venezuela for a backward bunch of backwater banana republicans in APNU whose expertise is making serious blunders? Any Russian or Chinese signal will prompt massive US retaliation because Guyana is a very soft target. Such action finally opens up Venezuela to US force under the pretext of Venezuela meddling in Guyana’s sovereignty. Putin and Xi may like to gamble but this is a gamble that is significantly more risk than reward.
China and Russia will not risk their dominance over the world’s largest oil reserves in Venezuela for a regime that has zero control over its oil. US sanctions will effectively hand Guyana’s oil to Exxon. And why in heaven’s name is China going to potentially kill off its lucrative minority stake in the Guyana sweetheart oil deal? I’m sure Rosneft will seek a piece of the pie going forward using non-combative means.
What is APNU’s end game? It’s the question of the times because this is going to end badly for APNU. Gravely put, these look like acts of sedition from APNU. By suggestively seeking Venezuelan, Russian and Chinese support and knowing fully well that these powers are going to promote Venezuelan interests above Guyana’s, this is going to jeopardize our position on Essequibo just as the politically-driven ICJ is about to hear our case. Our moral support as a small state trying to stand up to mighty Venezuela is now dashed. The actions of this cabal of APNU degenerates has imperilled Guyana’s sovereignty and national security.
The West is waiting for that final act of consummate stupidity and fate tempting where Granger swears himself in illegally and then we will see some fireworks, literally and figuratively. Don’t tempt an erratic Trump desperate to wag the dog as his re-election chances vanish in this economic doom and gloom. Quite frankly, the only thing I can think of that is keeping up this perfidy from APNU apart from the wrong-and-strong idiocy that pervades APNU is possibly some signals from Exxon, possibly in contradiction to the State Department, that there is still support for APNU. That’s very dangerous for an illegitimate regime and an oil company benefiting from a terrible deal.