A friend of mine, who is a supporter of the coalition, sent to me a so-called analysis done by the APNU/AFC regarding votes in Region Four. The coalition’s analysis, I suspect was done to bolster their flagging credibility and seek to convince the steadily declining blinded few that they really won the 2020 National and Regional Elections.
According to the coalition, APNU (84,828) and AFC (10,635) aggregately picked up 95,463 voters in 2011, which they contested separately. In 2015, when they coalesced following their Valentine’s Day wedding, they got 113,416 votes. In other words, they improved their votes by 17,953 votes. I contend that those additional votes came because of the call for change and the very tall tales the coalition told Guyanese. I should add that since 1992, 2015 was the best showing the PNC ever had in Region Four. I did not include previous elections as they were generally recorded as not reflective of the will of the people.
Now, let’s get to the analysis. It is this author’s conclusion that of the 17,953 votes gained in 2015, at least 6000 votes came from those supportive of the AFC and the remainder coming from the APNU/PNC quarters. I do not believe the other parties in APNU really added any numerical strength to the votes in 2015. Fast-forwarding to 2020, it has been generally accepted that the AFC exists in name as it has lost a lot of its followers following its entry into office. I believe that apart from the 6000 voters it contributed in 2015, it also lost a great amount of the 10,000 plus votes it secured in 2011.
Taking that into account, it is my considered view that the AFC probably, in Region Four, would not have secured more than 5000 votes that is down from roughly 17,000 in 2015. I say this from a comparison of the 2015 and 2020 Statements of Poll which indicated that in AFC-leaning areas, there were hardly any votes for the coalition. Maybe my 5000 votes are too generous, but let’s leave it there for the time being.
With that in mind, in essence, the AFC votes in Region Four have moved from 10,635 in 2011 to an estimated 17,000 in 2015 to about 5000 in 2020. Thus the reduction of some 12,000 votes (17,000-5000), would have gone to either the PPP/C or one of the smaller parties. I believe the former received more of the votes considering their impressive showing in the region.
So according to the coalition analysis, it only gained approximately 1000 votes between 2015 and 2020. I hasten to say, at this point, their analysis is extremely flawed. They did not bear in mind, at least publicly, that the AFC lost about 12,000 votes since the last election. In reality the APNU, and I say the PNC, picked up 13,000 more votes between 2015 and 2020 but the steep loss by its junior partner was just too steep and too deep to make up. The reality is the PNC-ites and others voted for their party, but the AFC is a spent force that caused the coalition the election.
The faster this reality is accepted the better it is for all Guyanese. COVID-19 is being felt and the economic fallout will stick around even longer. We need as a country to address this reality as many stand to lose and suffer and the losers should do the decent thing and demit office and allow the rightful and victorious PPP/C to take the reins and meaningfully address the crisis that has reached our shores.